Results / provenance first
Initial calibration results.
Model performance across evidence, analysis, experimental design and forecasting in the v0.2 synthetic calibration suite. These development results are separate from the prospective laboratory evaluation.
v0.2 / exploratory calibration
Benchmark results
30 Sept 2026 UTC · R9
10 models · 4 domains · 96 planned cases per model
The current head-to-head shortlist is GPT-6 Astra and Claude Sonnet 5.5. This is a selection for the next experiment, not evidence of biological efficacy.
Sonnet’s lead over Muse is 0.0246 index points; both round to 54.0 in the hero chart. The order uses unrounded scores.
Overall selection index. Domain percentages are components, not interchangeable accuracy measures.| Model | Rank | Index / 100 | Evidence | Analysis | Design | Forecast factor | Scored | Run notes |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 1 | 59.32 | 97.02% | 100.00% | 96.74% | 49.87% | 95/96 | — |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | 54.01 | 99.11% | 99.48% | 84.28% | 49.99% | 93/96 | 2 token limits and 1 timeout excluded · 0 refusals |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 3 | 53.98 | 97.32% | 99.48% | 85.91% | 49.93% | 91/96 | 5 token limits excluded |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 4 | 51.36 | 87.62% | 97.92% | 97.59% | 45.61% | 91/96 | 5 token limits excluded |
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| Kimi K3 | 5 | 45.22 | 95.45% | 96.59% | 80.83% | 42.99% | 38/96 | Account funds exhausted · high token use · 4 token limits excluded |
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| Grok 4.7 | 6 | 42.92 | 83.57% | 86.01% | 56.82% | 77.78% | 40/96 | Timeout-limited run |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 7 | 27.14 | 92.82% | 74.83% | 59.72% | 39.55% | 96/96 | — |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 8 | 12.60 | 60.36% | 54.10% | 44.79% | 42.62% | 93/96 | 3 token limits excluded |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 9 | 11.36 | 0.00% | 99.48% | 92.19% | 49.56% | 96/96 | 24/24 evidence cases refused |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 10 | 0.96 | 22.03% | 16.41% | 14.06% | 36.77% | 96/96 | 0 refusals · low graded accuracy |
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How the overall index works
Index = 25 × (EAD + EAF + EDF + ADF). E, A and D are mean partial-credit fractions for evidence, analysis and design. F is the forecast factor below. The index averages the product for each of the four possible three-domain combinations; every domain appears in three of them. This rewards strength across domains while retaining credit for completed work when one domain has been refused.
Each retained task has equal weight within its domain. Refusals and unrecoverable answer errors receive zero credit. Token-limit cases are excluded, just like confirmed timeouts and unfunded or stopped cases. There is no score penalty or reliability multiplier for these exclusions; coverage is reported separately.
F = (V / N) × ½ × [W₀ / (W₀ + W) + B₀ / (B₀ + B)]. N is the retained forecast count and V is the valid forecast count. W and B are mean WIS and mean Brier loss on those valid forecasts. W₀ and B₀ are the analytic comparator’s losses on exactly the same cases. If V = 0, F = 0. A zero-over-zero loss pair is assigned ½. Lower loss improves the factor; invalid forecasts reduce it through V/N.
Comparator-level WIS and Brier performance gives F = 0.5 when every retained forecast is valid. Perfect E/A/D plus that performance gives 62.5 points; perfect performance in every factor gives 100. A zero in one domain permits up to 25 points from the other three. Opus therefore receives credit for its strong analysis and design despite its evidence refusals. Haiku has no recorded refusals; its low score reflects low graded accuracy.
There is no normalization to the observed leader, model-specific adjustment or fitted target score. These are index points, not percent accuracy, probability of biological success or a joint success probability. The same formula applies to every model.
The failure-adjusted forecast factor is a selection convention, not the benchmark’s proper WIS loss or full-panel forecast skill. WIS and Brier diagnostics remain separate below. Subset losses do not reveal what missing or invalid forecasts would have scored.
One ranking, with coverage shown: every model is sorted normally by its overall index. Grok and Kimi have substantially smaller scored subsets, so their scores are conditional on the cases completed. They are not moved into a separate ranking group, and missing coverage does not reduce their score.
This selection rule was introduced after these calibration runs and is exploratory, not a preregistered or validated leaderboard. Astra and Sonnet are the top two with fully solved fractions, arithmetic averaging, and the 86 common retained cases among the eight broadly completed runs. That common-case check is a diagnostic, not a rank-eligibility screen. No forecast case is shared by all ten models because Grok and Kimi completed different subsets. Different budgets and limited task families constrain interpretation.
Same scoring policy for every model.Refusals and unrecoverable answer errors count as failures. Token-limit cases, confirmed network timeouts and no-answer funding, authentication or stopped cases are excluded from score denominators. Excluded cases reduce coverage without lowering scores. All models are sorted by their measured score.
Kimi K3: 38/96 scored; 54 no-answer cases excluded (38 funding errors, 1 authentication error, 1 interrupted request and 14 missing cases), plus 4 token-limit cases excluded. Grok 4.7: 40/96 retained after 56 confirmed timeouts. GPT-6 Astra: 95/96 retained after 1 confirmed timeout. Claude Opus 5.5: all 24 evidence cases were refused and remain at zero credit; its strong analysis and design results still earn overall credit. Claude Haiku 4.5: no recorded refusals; its low score reflects low graded accuracy after formatting repairs. Claude Sonnet 5.5: 93/96 retained after 2 design token limits and 1 confirmed forecast timeout; no recorded refusals.
Token limits excluded: Nano 3, Muse 5, DeepSeek 5, Kimi 4 and Sonnet 2. Refusals remain scored for everyone.
Run budgets differ: 32,768–128,000 maximum output tokens and 600–10,000-second timeouts. These are exploratory calibration results, not a matched-compute comparison.
| Model | Partial credit | Fully solved | Retained / planned | Valid / retained | Partial 95% CI | Solved 95% CI | Retained failures |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 97.0238% | 87.5000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 99.1071% | 95.8333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 97.3214% | 87.5000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 87.6214% | 62.5000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Kimi K3 | 95.4545% | 72.7273% | 11/24 | 11/11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Grok 4.7 | 83.5728% | 61.5385% | 13/24 | 13/13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 92.8198% | 70.8333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 60.3578% | 4.1667% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | 24/24 | 0/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 24 refusal |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 22.0289% | 0.0000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | None |
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| Model | Partial credit | Fully solved | Retained / planned | Valid / retained | Partial 95% CI | Solved 95% CI | Retained failures |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 100.0000% | 100.0000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 100.00–100.00% | 100.00–100.00% | None |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 99.4792% | 95.8333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 98.44–100.00% | 87.50–100.00% | None |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 99.4792% | 95.8333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 98.44–100.00% | 87.50–100.00% | None |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 97.9167% | 83.3333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 93.75–100.00% | 50.00–100.00% | None |
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| Kimi K3 | 96.5909% | 72.7273% | 11/24 | 11/11 | 92.50–100.00% | 40.00–100.00% | None |
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| Grok 4.7 | 86.0119% | 78.5714% | 14/24 | 14/14 | 75.89–100.00% | 58.82–100.00% | None |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 74.8264% | 66.6667% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 44.62–95.14% | 37.50–91.67% | None |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 54.1035% | 36.3636% | 22/24 | 22/22 | 26.26–80.89% | 4.55–72.73% | None |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 99.4792% | 95.8333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 98.44–100.00% | 87.50–100.00% | None |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 16.4120% | 0.0000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 7.36–30.24% | 0.00–0.00% | None |
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| Model | Partial credit | Fully solved | Retained / planned | Valid / retained | Partial 95% CI | Solved 95% CI | Retained failures |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 96.7391% | 95.6522% | 23/24 | 23/23 | 89.29–100.00% | 85.71–100.00% | None |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 84.2803% | 72.7273% | 22/24 | 22/22 | 60.88–97.22% | 44.44–91.67% | None |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 85.9127% | 71.4286% | 21/24 | 21/21 | 67.13–100.00% | 33.33–100.00% | None |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 97.5877% | 89.4737% | 19/24 | 19/19 | 93.45–100.00% | 66.67–100.00% | None |
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| Kimi K3 | 80.8333% | 60.0000% | 10/24 | 10/10 | 65.91–95.83% | 40.00–87.50% | None |
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| Grok 4.7 | 56.8182% | 45.4545% | 11/24 | 11/11 | 12.50–100.00% | 0.00–100.00% | None |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 59.7222% | 33.3333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 30.56–87.50% | 0.00–75.00% | None |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 44.7917% | 12.5000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 20.49–69.44% | 0.00–37.50% | None |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 92.1875% | 83.3333% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 87.15–97.22% | 70.83–95.83% | None |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 14.0625% | 0.0000% | 24/24 | 24/24 | 8.68–19.44% | 0.00–0.00% | None |
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Intervals were recomputed after exclusions using 2,000 bootstrap draws clustered by construction family. Evidence has only one family, so a family-level interval is unavailable. Few families limit generalization; no overall-index confidence interval is claimed.
WIS and Brier are losses: lower is better. WIS skill is relative improvement over the comparator, not accuracy. Token limits and infrastructure exclusions are removed; remaining invalid answers suppress retained-panel WIS skill and receive zero contribution in the overall forecast factor.
| Model | Retained-case WIS skill ↑ | Mean WIS ↓ | Comparator WIS | Mean Brier ↓ | Comparator Brier | Valid / retained | Status |
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| GPT-6 Astra | -0.009394 | 0.086055 | 0.085254 | 0.232971 | 0.232645 | 24/24 | Complete 24-case panel |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | -0.001802 | 0.086720 | 0.086564 | 0.242598 | 0.242760 | 23/23 | 23/24 cases · subset |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | -0.006200 | 0.085546 | 0.085019 | 0.247577 | 0.247730 | 22/22 | 22/24 cases · subset |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | -0.198902 | 0.102212 | 0.085254 | 0.275865 | 0.232645 | 24/24 | Complete 24-case panel |
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| Kimi K3 | -0.222062 | 0.056772 | 0.046456 | 0.397341 | 0.275796 | 6/6 | 6/24 cases · subset |
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| Grok 4.7 | 0.696575 | 0.055059 | 0.181459 | 0.087065 | 0.324387 | 2/2 | 2/24 cases · subset |
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| GPT-6 Luna | -1.020491 | 0.172256 | 0.085254 | 0.273134 | 0.232645 | 24/24 | Complete 24-case panel |
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| GPT-5 Nano | -1.109755 | 0.180896 | 0.085743 | 0.209368 | 0.236960 | 23/23 | 23/24 cases · subset |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | -0.014276 | 0.086471 | 0.085254 | 0.237567 | 0.232645 | 24/24 | Complete 24-case panel |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | -1.695818 | 0.229830 | 0.085254 | 0.267932 | 0.232645 | 24/24 | Complete 24-case panel |
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Subset means and their comparator use exactly the same valid cases. Forecast has one construction family; a family-level confidence interval is unavailable. These raw subset diagnostics are not a complete-model ranking.
215 responses were recovered: Haiku 9, Muse 91, DeepSeek 91 and Kimi 24. Repairs remove JSON fences, add the required answers wrapper, separate clearly labeled rationale prose or a rationale-only object, or omit an overlength optional rationale from the scored copy. Original answer values are preserved.
No missing fields are invented, numeric strings coerced, quantiles reordered or answers corrected against the key. Scientific errors and remaining output failures keep their original grading. All 24 Opus refusals remain failures. No new model calls were made.
| Model | Recovered | Excluded cases / reason | Retained failures | Retained |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 0 | 1 confirmed network timeout | None | 95/96 |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 0 | 2 token_limit, 1 confirmed_network_timeout | None | 93/96 |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 91 | 5 token limit | None | 91/96 |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 91 | 5 token limit | None | 91/96 |
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| Kimi K3 | 24 | 4 token limit, 38 insufficient funds, 1 interrupted without answer, 1 authentication error without answer, 14 not returned | None | 38/96 |
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| Grok 4.7 | 0 | 56 confirmed network timeout | None | 40/96 |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 0 | None | None | 96/96 |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 0 | 3 token limit | None | 93/96 |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0 | None | 24 refusal | 96/96 |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 9 | None | None | 96/96 |
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| Model | Max output tokens | Timeout | Output mode | Optional parameters | Track |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 32,768 | 600s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 128,000 | 10,000s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| Muse Spark 1.3 | 128,000 | 10,000s | text | {"reasoning_effort": "high"} | closed_packet_text_json |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 128,000 | 10,000s | text | {"reasoning_effort": "max"} | closed_packet_text_json |
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| Kimi K3 | 128,000 | 10,000s | text | {"reasoning_effort": "max"} | closed_packet_text_json |
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| Grok 4.7 | 32,768 | 600s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 32,768 | 600s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| GPT-5 Nano | 32,768 | 600s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 100,000 | 10,000s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 64,000 | 10,000s | native | {} | closed_packet_native_json |
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Kimi stopped after the account ran out of funds. Its funding errors, interrupted or missing cases and four token-limit cases are excluded from scores. It has 38 scored cases, including only six forecasts.
Operator-reported budget: the run operator reports that Kimi needed more funding than any other model to complete, with some cases requiring roughly 100× more. Comparable billing records were not supplied, so this remains an attributed budget observation.
Measured token comparison: 11 of 38 shared valid cases used over 100× Haiku’s reported output tokens. For F001, Kimi used 113,525 versus Haiku’s 377 (301.1×). These are reported output tokens, including reasoning where reported, rather than dollar costs. DeepSeek had higher average reported output-token use than Kimi in these exports.
Frozen packet and aggregate provenance
All ten runs match the same 96-case task packet. Original valid-item scores were checked against the supplied scored records. One additional confirmed Astra timeout was excluded under the existing transport-timeout policy.
- Task-file SHA-256
- efc0911cd357e85c9974648a5216be84e65f310eae61fda0dc3f4f44356e10f3
- Answer-key SHA-256
- 60be10c1614ad32d14bb237c4ca40026c835cbee2cc12ac697def858357a6d57
- Snapshot
- 30 Sept 2026 UTC · R9
Questions, answer keys and raw responses are not embedded in this page. Human review remains available by request. The embedded data contains aggregates, resource settings and source hashes only.